Why Erdogan Is Expected To Win Turkey's Presidential Runoff

With Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections heading into a run-off vote on May 28th, Erdogan has the new god of selective censorship (Elon Musk on his Twitter throne) on his side, and he could end up winning the second-round vote with a stability argument. Financial markets seem to be fairly confident that Erdogan will win. This is clear with a weakening of Turkish financial assets as the market prepares for another five-year term for the near-autocrat and his extremely unorthodox economic policies.

While Erdogan won 49.51% in Sunday’s presidential vote, and CHP candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu won 45%, it was only enough for a run-off vote, with the winner requiring over 50%. However, in the parliamentary vote, Erdogan’s AKP and partners won 322 of the 600 seats up for grabs, which means he will control parliament regardless. The argument that is likely to resonate with many Turkish voters is the one Erdogan is making sure is circulated incessantly: Because his party already will control parliament, a CHP president would introduce instability and potentially paralyze the government. Voting for Erdogan in the second round, then, is being billed as the only path to stability.

Urban Turks opposed to Erdogan have expressed shock at the mentality of voters in Sunday’s election. What was most shocking was the fact that the regions where a devastating earthquake killed tens of thousands of people and left many more homeless, voted for Erdogan, despite clear evidence that his regime purposefully allowed buildings to go up without following codes that would have prevented so much death and destruction. These more rural, less educated masses in Turkey are not fond of change, and this makes it easy to give them false promises and expect another ‘yes’ vote, all the same. Primarily, it appears to be the youth vote that could decide Erdogan’s fate this coming Sunday, and with broad media control and Twitter censored (in favor of Erdogan), the message-making advantage goes to the incumbent.

Geopolitically, a win for Erdogan enables the continuation of Turkey’s position as a buffer between Russia and the West. For Moscow, Turkey plays an important role in this respect. A Turkey without Erdogan remains unclear in terms of relations with Russia, including entrenched energy sector cooperation and the interests of both countries in foreign venues, including (but not exclusively) Syria and Libya. While Russia and Turkey are “partners” rather than “allies”, an election in Ankara is a significant event for Moscow (particularly a Moscow now trapped in a never-ending war in Ukraine). Though a member of NATO, Turkey is, at best, an unreliable U.S. ally who remains rather isolated from the West as Erdogan has always sought to play East off West for his own leverage. That isolation would be expected to be reduced, at least, if the opposition were to win. Still, with a parliament that will be controlled by the AKP, there’s not much a new CHP president could do without significant legislative roadblocks. From this perspective, the Turkish elite opposed to Erdogan will view the elections as a lame-duck event.

On Thursday, the lira hit a record low against the dollar, after plunging 44% in 2021 and another 30% in 2022 because of Erdogan’s damaging economic policies.